Strait of Hormuz shock: why this war became a global energy emergency

If one wants to understand why a regional war now feels global, the answer sits in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA said on 11 March that crude and refined-product exports through the strait had fallen to less than 10 per cent of pre-conflict levels. It noted that around 20 million barrels a day transited Hormuz in 2025, roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, with only limited bypass options.

That disruption has radiated beyond crude. In its March oil market report, the IEA said the closure was putting more than 4 million barrels a day of refining capacity at risk and threatening Gulf exports of refined products and LPG. On 30 March it added that global LNG supply had also fallen by around 20 per cent because of the conflict. This is not a narrow tanker story. It is an across-the-chain energy squeeze.

The IEA’s language has been unusually stark. It said the conflict had created the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market and pushed member countries into the biggest coordinated emergency stock release in the agency’s history: 400 million barrels announced on 11 March. By 20 March, it was also urging governments to use demand-side measures, not just stock releases, because supply-side action alone could not fully cushion the scale of the shock.

The UN Secretary-General’s office has also warned that the prolonged closure is choking not only oil and gas, but fertiliser flows at a crucial point in the global planting season. That is why the Hormuz crisis cannot be read merely as a fuel story. It is now a freight story, a food story and an inflation story as well.