World Bank data record a broad monthly increase, but one major group moved in the opposite direction
The World Bank’s completed August 2026 commodity dataset records strong increases in energy and precious metals, moderate gains across food, beverages, agricultural raw materials and base metals, and a decline in fertilisers.
The energy and precious-metals indices each rose 8.8%. Within energy, natural gas increased 10.1% and crude oil 5.7%. Metals and minerals gained 4.0%. Agricultural raw materials rose 2.2%, beverages 2.0%, and food 1.4%. Fertilisers were the only listed aggregate to decline, falling 1.9%.
These are changes in global benchmark indices, not national consumer-inflation rates. They must not be translated directly into electricity tariffs, petrol prices, grocery bills or jewellery prices.
August commodity trend table
| Series | Monthly change | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | +10.1% | Increase |
| Energy index | +8.8% | Increase |
| Precious metals | +8.8% | Increase |
| Crude oil | +5.7% | Increase |
| Metals and minerals | +4.0% | Increase |
| Agricultural raw materials | +2.2% | Increase |
| Beverages | +2.0% | Increase |
| Food | +1.4% | Increase |
| Fertilisers | −1.9% | Decline |
Eight of these nine reported series moved upwards. The distribution was nevertheless wide: natural gas rose more than ten percentage points, whereas food increased by 1.4%. The precise finding is therefore that August’s increase was concentrated in energy and precious metals.
Comparison gaps
| Comparison | Gap |
|---|---|
| Natural gas minus food | 8.7 percentage points |
| Energy minus food | 7.4 points |
| Precious metals minus metals and minerals | 4.8 points |
| Food movement versus fertiliser movement | 3.3 points |
The last figure crosses zero: food rose 1.4% while fertilisers declined 1.9%.
Energy and metals
Natural gas outpaced crude oil during August. The broad energy index is weighted and covers defined components, so it should not be reconstructed as a simple average of the two displayed changes.
Precious metals matched the energy index at 8.8%, while metals and minerals rose 4.0%. Equal percentage movements do not establish a shared cause. Base metals are strongly connected with industry and construction; precious metals also carry investment and reserve demand. The official release records prices, not a causal decomposition.
Agriculture: positive but less intense
Food rose 1.4%, beverages 2.0%, and agricultural raw materials 2.2%. FAO’s separate food index rose 1.9% in August. Both readings can be accurate because the organisations use different baskets, price series and weights.
| Publisher | August food measure | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
| World Bank | Commodity food aggregate | +1.4% |
| FAO | Five-group Food Price Index | +1.9% |
The two must not be blended into one number or described as contradictory.
Fertilisers moved against the broader pattern
The fertiliser index fell 1.9% despite the rise in energy. Fertiliser production is energy-intensive, but monthly prices also reflect inventories, regional output, trade conditions, seasonal purchasing and individual nutrient markets. The data establish a one-month decline; they do not establish a lasting reversal or a universal fall in farm input costs.
Evidence boundary
| Supported | Not supported |
|---|---|
| Energy and precious metals rose 8.8% | They continued rising in September |
| Natural gas rose faster than crude oil | Every regional gas benchmark rose equally |
| Agricultural aggregates increased | Retail food prices rose by the same rates |
| Fertilisers fell 1.9% | Fertiliser costs declined in every country |
| Metals rose 4.0% | Manufacturing output necessarily increased |
The August record is descriptive: a commodity upswing led by energy and precious metals, accompanied by smaller agricultural increases and a fertiliser decline. It contains no defensible future price path.