The latest shipping numbers from the Strait of Hormuz show why the passage remains one of the central variables for the global economy. Only two vessels were visibly recorded crossing the strait on Friday, following nine on Thursday and five on Wednesday. The August average was 12, compared with more than 130 ships a day before the war. No crude-oil shipment was visibly recorded crossing on Friday.
There is an important qualification: vessels operating with transponders switched off may not appear in ship-tracking counts. The U.S. EIA separately warns that AIS information around Hormuz has become particularly unreliable since February and supplements tracking data with cargo-route analysis.
Hormuz: the latest shipping and oil-price signal
| Visible vessels crossing Friday, 14 Aug | 2 | 🔴↓ |
| Thursday | 9 | 🔴↓ |
| Wednesday | 5 | 🔴↓ |
| August daily average | 12 | 🔴↓ |
| Pre-war daily ship traffic | 130+ | Benchmark |
| Visible crude shipments Friday | 0 | 🔴↓ |
| Brent settlement, 14 Aug | $88.52/barrel | 🟢↑ 1.67% |
| WTI settlement, 14 Aug | $82.40/barrel | 🟢↑ 1.42% |
| Brent weekly move | +6.0% | 🔴↑ cost pressure |
| WTI weekly move | +5.4% | 🔴↑ cost pressure |
The immediate trigger was not simply rhetoric. Two ADNOC vessels were attacked while transiting the strait on Thursday, according to the UAE, while negotiations had failed to produce renewed progress.
The deeper oil-supply squeeze
| Indicator | Earlier / baseline | Latest estimate | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil/liquids through Hormuz | 21.6 mb/d in Q4 2025 | 4.9 mb/d in Q2 2026 | 🔴↓ |
| Global oil supply | — | 101.5 mb/d in July 2026 | 🟢↑ m/m |
| Gulf output still shut in | — | 8.3 mb/d in July | 🔴 |
| Global observed inventories, July | — | −69 million barrels | 🔴↓ |
| 2026 world oil-demand growth | Previous forecast higher | −1.6 mb/d contraction | 🔴↓ |
| 2026 global supply | — | −4.3 mb/d average change | 🔴↓ |
| Estimated Q3 2026 oil-market balance | — | 1.8 mb/d deficit | 🔴 |
The EIA estimates Hormuz petroleum flows averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, versus 21.6 million b/d in Q4 2025 before the conflict. It assumes shipments remain severely constrained through August and forecasts Brent averaging around $85 a barrel in Q3, before potentially easing as flows recover.
The IEA’s August report adds another layer: global oil supply recovered to 101.5 million b/d in July, but remained 6.3 million b/d below a year earlier, with 8.3 million b/d of Gulf output still shut in. Observed global oil stocks fell by 69 million barrels in July, and the agency now estimates a 1.8-million-b/d global deficit in Q3.
What the numbers tell us
Nine145 analysis: The important number is no longer simply the Brent price. It is the gap between pre-conflict physical flows and present shipping capacity.
Oil prices remain well below their most extreme conflict-period levels, but that does not mean the physical market has normalised. The combination of reduced passage, shut-in Gulf production, falling inventories and constrained product trade keeps the market unusually sensitive to individual tanker attacks and diplomatic developments.
This also makes today’s post sufficiently different from the earlier Nine145 Hormuz benchmark: the new story is based on fresh mid-August ship traffic, new attacks, the August IEA/EIA revisions and the latest completed oil-market settlement, rather than recycling the earlier conflict narrative.
Sources
International Energy Agency, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Reuters/Kpler.