- Total envelope rose from US $46 bn (2015) to US $62–65 bn (2022) as add‑ons piled up.
- Spent to date ≈ US $35–40 bn, of which two‑thirds sits in power projects financed by Chinese company loans that Pakistan must service through guaranteed tariffs.
- Bilateral public debt to China now roughly US $23 bn, or 30 per cent of the country’s external public debt.
- Debt service tops US $1.5 bn a year; Beijing quietly rolled over US $4 bn in 2023 to avert default.
- Phase‑wise allocation Early‑harvest sucked up ≈ US $20 bn; Phase 2 commitments (ML‑1, KCR, SEZ infrastructure) are largely undisbursed pending “improved macro‑stability”.
Analytical jab: CPEC’s label may read “investment”, but the ingredients list is heavy on sovereign debt and light on concessional grace.