- Estimated initial cost – USD51 billion
- Or 10% of Israel’s GDP.
- If the war doesn’t extend beyond one year (8 to 12 months).
- Restricted to the Gaza Strip only.
- Not become a regional conflict.
- No full involvement of Hezbollah, Iran, or Houthi rebels of Yemen.
- And 350,000 reservist troops return to their civilian life.
Estimation done by Calcalist – a financial newspaper in Israel | Data source – Israel’s Finance Ministry
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (October 25)
- $246 million per day – the Hamas war cost
Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics
- Unemployment Rate – 9.6% (October) | 3.4% (September).
- Employment Rate – 56.5% (October) | 61.1% (September).
- Jobless people – 428,400 (October) | 163,000 (September).
- 80,000 Israelis on unpaid leaves.
Economy expects to contract in the 4thquarter.
Growth rate – The Bank of Israel
- 2023 forecast – 3%.
- Now – 2023 – 2.3%.
- 2024 – 2.8%.
If the war doesn’t extend from the Gaza Strip and Israel’s southern borders.
Inflation going up.
- Shekel, Israeli currency, down by 5% against USD.
- 15%+ down this year.
- Currency at weakest level since 2009.
Government deficit to increase with the war.
- 2023 – 2.3% of the GDP | the forecast was 1%.
- 2024 – 3.5% of the GDP.
The war aid package
- Israel’s COVID stimulus – USD40 billion (over 2 years).
- Promises a more comprehensive aid package for the ongoing Hamas war.
- USD6 billion so far.
- Major source: international debt investors + USD5.1 billion.
- USD1 billion – through a US entity.
USD14.3 billion – US President Joe Biden hopes US Congress will approve – military assistance.
Credit Rating Agencies on Israel
- Moody’s – under review – potential downgrade.
- Fitch – under review – potential downgrade.
- S&P – downgraded to negative.