Brazil will hold its presidential runoff on 25 October after neither candidate secured more than half of valid votes on 4 October. The contest is between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party.
The official first-round count placed Bolsonaro first with 56,104,268 votes, or 47.03% of valid ballots. Lula received 53,876,617, or 45.16%. Bolsonaro’s official advantage was 2,227,651 votes and 1.87 percentage points. These two differences are Nine145 calculations from the TSE totals.
The election recorded 125,272,513 ballots in total. After subtracting 2,300,781 blank ballots and 3,674,149 null ballots, the valid-vote denominator was 119,297,583. This distinction is essential because Brazil’s presidential percentages are calculated from valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots.
Official first-round result table
| Measure | Flávio Bolsonaro | Lula | Other/total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valid votes | 56,104,268 | 53,876,617 | 119,297,583 total valid votes |
| Valid-vote share | 47.03% | 45.16% | 7.81% for other candidates |
| Vote difference | +2,227,651 | — | |
| Percentage-point difference | +1.87 | — | |
| Combined votes of finalists | 109,980,885 | — | |
| Combined share of valid votes | 92.19% | — | 47.03% + 45.16% |
| Valid votes for other candidates | — | — | 9,316,698, or 7.81% |
| Total ballots cast | — | — | 125,272,513 |
| Blank ballots | — | — | 2,300,781 or 1.84% of ballots recorded |
| Null ballots | — | — | 3,674,149 or 2.93% of ballots recorded |
Runoff polling table
Polls using valid votes exclude blank, null and undecided responses. Polls reporting total voting intention retain at least some of those categories. Figures from the two formats must not be compared without conversion.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Reported measure | Bolsonaro | Lula | Margin/registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg | 3–8 Oct | 5,026 | Valid votes | 52.8% | 47.2% | ±1 point; BR-03663/2026 |
| Datafolha | 6–7 Oct | 2,520 | Total intention | 49% | 45% | ±2 points; BR-02949/2026 |
| Datafolha | 6–7 Oct | 2,520 | Valid votes | 52% | 48% | Derived by pollster |
| BTG/Nexus | 10–12 Oct | Not stated in cited summary | Valid votes | 52% | 48% | Technical tie reported; BR-07997/2026 |
| PoderData/AYA | Published 13 Oct | Not stated in cited summary | Valid votes | 51% | 49% | 95% confidence; BR-01209/2026 |
| Quaest | 10–13 Oct | 2,154 | Total intention | 46% | 44% | ±2 points; BR-08729/2026 |
| Quaest | 10–13 Oct | 2,154 | Valid-vote equivalent | 51% | 49% | Rounded conversion reported by pollster/media |
How to read the table
Four findings are visible without constructing an artificial poll average.
- Bolsonaro led the official first round and leads numerically in each listed post-first-round survey.
- Several leads fall within the poll’s stated margin of error and are consequently reported as technical ties.
- The polls do not use identical methods: Datafolha interviewed respondents in person, AtlasIntel used digitally recruited online responses, and other institutes applied their own sampling and weighting systems.
- The apparent spread changes when blank, null and undecided responses are removed. A 46–44 total-vote poll can become approximately 51–49 among valid votes without any respondent changing preference.
The Quaest snapshot
The newest fully documented poll available at the cut-off was Quaest, released on 14 October. It recorded Bolsonaro at 46%, Lula at 44%, blank/null or non-voting intention at 9%, and undecided voters at 1%. With a two-point margin of error, the two candidates were technically tied.
The poll interviewed 2,154 people from 10 to 13 October. A poll is a sample-based estimate of opinion during those dates—not a count of ballots that will be cast on 25 October.
The electorate outside the finalists
The first-round finalists together received 92.19% of valid votes. The remaining candidates received 9,316,698 votes, or 7.81% of the valid total. Separately, more than 33.4 million registered electors did not attend the first round. Brazil’s Senate information service has clarified that an elector who missed the first round may still vote in the second, provided the voter’s electoral status is regular.
The runoff is therefore not decided merely by retaining first-round supporters. The campaigns are competing for voters who backed eliminated candidates, cast blank or null ballots, abstained, or remain undecided.
First round versus latest poll
| Candidate | Official first-round valid share | Latest Quaest valid equivalent | Direction, not forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 47.03% | About 51% | Starts the runoff ahead in the official count and Quaest snapshot |
| Lula | 45.16% | About 49% | Requires gains among non-finalist and returning voters |
The two columns measure different things. The first is an official completed vote; the second is a sample estimate for a two-candidate contest. Their difference should not be described as a literal vote transfer.
What the data establish
Bolsonaro entered the runoff with a 2.23-million-vote first-round advantage and has retained a numerical lead across the principal published runoff surveys listed here. The size of that lead varies, and several surveys classify the contest as a technical tie.
The data do not establish the winner. Ten days remained – for – votes had not been cast for the second round, and differences in turnout can matter as much as persuasion in a close contest.
