Renewed military exchanges return the world’s most important energy passage to the centre of global economic risk
The United States has launched another wave of strikes against Iranian military positions, while Washington has also reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had retaliated against US military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan and threatened export corridors used by Washington’s allies.
The escalation has returned the Strait of Hormuz to the centre of global energy calculations. Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway. Oil prices moved higher, while as per different estimates, Gulf exports had fallen below half their pre-war level during the preceding week.
Latest US action
New strikes were reported against Iranian coastal-defence, cruise-missile storage and launch sites. The United States also reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Iranian response
Iran said it had struck US military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
Brent crude
US$84.91 per barrel at the cited intraday market snapshot, up 0.2%.
West Texas Intermediate
US$79.60 per barrel, up 0.3%.
Estimated Gulf exports
Below 50% of pre-war levels, or approximately 11 million barrels per day, according to a Goldman Sachs estimate cited by Reuters.
Hormuz energy importance
Approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict.
High-risk oil scenario
Brent crude could rise above US$110 per barrel in the fourth quarter if Gulf export recovery remains stalled, according to the cited estimate.
IMF global-growth forecast
The IMF projected global economic growth of 3.0% in 2026 and global headline inflation of 4.7%.
The IMF’s July outlook had assumed that the Strait of Hormuz would begin reopening in mid-July and gradually return to pre-war conditions by March 2027. The renewed fighting therefore introduces a fresh downside risk to the IMF’s oil, inflation and growth assumptions.
