A strong El Niño is intensifying and is expected to dominate global climate patterns during August–October 2026, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The outlook points towards above-normal temperatures across most land regions, while rainfall risks divide the world between wetter and drier zones.
El Niño 2026 dashboard
| WMO assessment | |
|---|---|
| Current direction | El Niño steadily intensifying |
| Expected strength | Strong |
| Main forecast period | August–October 2026 |
| Forecast Pacific temperature anomaly | Above 2.9°C in key monitoring regions |
| Additional ocean driver | Positive Indian Ocean Dipole expected |
| Global temperature signal | Above-normal temperatures across most land areas |
| Next full WMO ENSO update | Early September 2026 |
The projected 2.9°C-plus sea-surface temperature anomaly refers to key El Niño monitoring regions. It is not a forecast that the global average temperature will rise by 2.9°C.
Where warmer conditions are most likely
| Region | August–October temperature signal |
| Africa | Above average strongly favoured |
| Southern Europe | Above average |
| Arabian Peninsula | Above average |
| Indian subcontinent | Above average |
| Eastern Asia | Above average |
| Central America and Caribbean | Above average |
| Southern Africa | Above average |
| Much of South America | Above average |
| New Zealand | Above average |
Rainfall divide
| Wetter-than-normal conditions favoured | Drier-than-normal conditions favoured |
| Greater Horn of Africa | Indian subcontinent |
| Parts of Central Asia | Southern and eastern Australia |
| Southern Europe | Southern Central America |
| Western North America south of 45°N | Parts of the Caribbean |
| Southeastern South America | Northwestern South America |
| — | Northern Europe |
These are probabilistic seasonal outlooks—not guarantees of rainfall or drought at a particular location.
What changed in the outlook?
| WMO update | Assessment |
| 2 June 2026 | 80% likelihood of El Niño during June–August |
| 2 June 2026 | Continuation probability near or above 90% through at least November |
| 3 July 2026 | El Niño conditions underway and strengthening rapidly |
| 31 July 2026 | Strong event expected during August–October |
| Status on 23 August | Latest published strong-event outlook remains in force |
Why the Indian Ocean Dipole matters
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole occurs when the western Indian Ocean is warmer than average relative to the eastern side. In combination with El Niño, it can amplify regional rainfall disruption around the Indian Ocean basin.
The WMO outlook places the Indian subcontinent among regions where above-normal temperature and below-normal rainfall signals are favoured for August–October. However, national and local forecasts remain necessary because seasonal global outlooks cannot determine rainfall for individual cities or districts.
What El Niño does—and does not—mean
| It can influence | It cannot determine by itself |
| Seasonal temperature patterns | The exact temperature on a particular day |
| Regional rainfall probabilities | Whether every location will face drought |
| Heatwave and wildfire risk | The precise path of an individual storm |
| Marine heat conditions | A guaranteed disaster outcome |
| Agricultural and water-planning risks | Uniform effects across an entire country |
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, generally recurring every two to seven years and often lasting nine to 12 months. Its consequences depend on strength, timing, duration and interaction with other ocean-atmosphere systems.
Nine145 analysis: The important signal is the overlap of three drivers—strong El Niño, exceptionally warm oceans and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This raises preparedness needs, but it does not justify treating every extreme-weather event as being caused solely by El Niño.