For the last decade and a half, the world’s financial heavyweights have been quietly running the numbers on the 21st century. While the geopolitical news cycle obsesses over daily volatility, the long-term mathematical models from London to New York have settled on a different, more permanent reality. When you strip away the noise and look strictly at the progression of economic forecasts from 2011 to today, a singular pattern emerges. The world economy is not just shifting East; it is gravitating toward a new center of gravity: India.
2011: The Citi Prophecy
The first and most audacious claim to the throne came in 2011. While the world was fixated on the “Chinese miracle,” Citi’s economists Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari looked further ahead in their landmark report, Global Growth Generators.
They argued that demographics are destiny. Their model predicted that while China would rise fast, it would also age fast. India, however, was playing the long game. Citi’s forecast for 2050 was unequivocal: India would not just catch up; it would overtake both China and the United States to become the world’s largest economy by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). They pegged India’s 2050 GDP at a staggering $86 trillion, crowning New Delhi as the capital of the global economy.
2017: The PwC Confirmation
Six years later, amidst global slowdowns, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) released The World in 2050. While slightly more conservative than Citi, the trajectory remained aggressively upward.
PwC’s analysis confirmed that the old G7 dominance was over. By their calculations, India’s share of global GDP would surge to roughly 15% by mid-century. They projected India’s PPP GDP to hit $44.1 trillion by 2050, firmly establishing it as the second-largest economy on earth, leaving the United States in the rear-view mirror ($34.1 trillion). The report made it clear: the question was no longer if India would dominate, but by how wide a margin.
2024-2025: The Modern Reality Check
Fast forward to the present. We no longer need to rely solely on distant forecasts; the current data from the IMF and World Bank validates the early prophecies. India has already secured the rank of the 3rd largest economy by PPP ($16.2 trillion) and the 5th by nominal terms.
But the most compelling update comes from EY (Ernst & Young). Utilizing the latest IMF data, EY’s projections suggest the timeline for overtaking the West is accelerating. They forecast that by 2038—less than 15 years from now—India’s PPP GDP will reach $34.2 trillion. This crosses the critical threshold to surpass the United States, placing India in the #2 spot globally well before the mid-century mark.
The Long Horizon: 2075 and Beyond
The most recent major projection comes from Goldman Sachs in their Path to 2075 report. Taking the longest view of all major banks, Goldman forecasts that the Indian growth engine has more fuel than any other nation. By 2075, they project India will be the second-largest economy in undisputed real US Dollar terms, valued at $52.5 trillion.
Even further out, researcher Huw McKay’s work on The World Economy in 2100 offers a glimpse into the next century. In four out of his five economic scenarios, India reclaims the position it held for most of human history: the number one economy in the world.
The Ink is Dry on Destiny
The progression of these studies—from Citi’s bold 2011 claim to Goldman’s 2075 roadmap—tells us that India’s rise is immune to temporary market cycles. It is a structural inevitability.
The 20th century was defined by American exceptionalism. The early 2000s were defined by Chinese manufacturing. But the data—cold, hard, and reviewed by the world’s strictest financial institutions—confirms that the future belongs to us. We are not merely rising; we are returning to our rightful place at the summit.